Blytheville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

453
FXUS64 KMEG 201630
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for parts of east-central Arkansas
  and north Mississippi until 8 PM tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue today for areas along
  and south of Interstate 40. There is a low chance of a few
  strong thunderstorms with gusty winds as the main threat.

- Temperatures will trend cooler behind a cold front through the
  end of the week. By Friday, highs will be in the upper 80s and
  mid 90s. Another shot of cooler air will arrive on Sunday and
  persist into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

A slow moving cold front is currently near the IL/MO/KY tri-state
border as of 1130 AM. Guidance currently suggests this front will
reach the TN/MS border by 18z (1 PM CDT), but given its slow moving
nature, that seems a bit rushed and closer to 21z (4 PM CDT)- 00z (7
PM CDT). As weak moisture still pulls ahead of this front, a small
Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM for the Mississippi Delta
Region.

The combination of lift and peak daytime heating will support
thunderstorm development mainly across north Mississippi this
afternoon. Given the aforementioned slow movement, development could
occur in West Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Similar to yesterday,
high instability and sufficient surface based lapse rates threaten
gusty winds with any thunderstorm development. If quick upscale
growth occurs, downburst winds up to 60 mph will be the primary
concern. Some areas received welcomed and beneficial rainfall
yesterday, but could enhance localized flash flooding in any slow
moving downpours this afternoon and evening. Nonetheless, any severe
wind threat will slowly wind down as the sunsets and peak
instability values decrease.

Drier air does reside behind the aforementioned frontal boundary and
will bring less humid conditions on Thursday. Forecast high
temperatures for Thursday are in the mid 80s to lower 90s with
afternoon maximum heat index values below the triple digits.
Conditions will feel a bit cooler for Friday as well as brisk,
northerly flow will prevail ahead of a re-inforcing cold front
taking aim. Thanks to the dry air in place from today`s frontal
passage, this weekend will be dry with this re-inforcing frontal`s
passage. Think of it as false fall if you will, with forecast highs
around 10 degrees below normal by Tuesday. Crisp morning lows will
be in the 60s on Monday with areas near the TN/KY border potentially
dropping into the 50s for Tuesday morning.

While cooler conditions looks to prevail for a majority of the
forecast, the dryness is subject to change. A deep trough looks to
set up over the central plains early next week resulting in
northwest flow aloft making the Mid-South more susceptible to
thunderstorm complexes if the trough sets up correctly. The LREFs
ensemble members are at a 50/50 split with the trough placement. The
GEFS and GEPS have the trough remaining north and setting up over
the Midwest keeping us cooler and drier, but the ENS and
grand esemble have the trough tracking right over us.
Nonetheless, cooler conditions look to hang around, but keep an
eye out for precipitation chances.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

A weak cold front will pass through the area this afternoon. Best
potential for any TS (PROB30) will be mainly at TUP with
confidence too low to justify mention elsewhere. VFR conditions
expected to prevail with N winds averaging between 5-8 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the remainder of the
work week. Hot and humid conditions will prevail through tonight.
A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight
resulting in an increase in wetting rains chances. Drier and
slightly cooler air will filter in behind the front through the
end of the week.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010>012-
     020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC